Every year on 11th July, it is considered World Population Day, witnessing the increasing consciousness on population change and understanding the development effects and challenges. The United Nations projects that the world population will continue to increase and reach up to 9.6 billion in 2050. The global demographic changes towards fertility and mortality are important to understand the global developments. The absence of migration, defined as a zero net migration rate, will influence population growth based on the differences between birth and death rates. Current populations are determined by the size and composition of birth and death rates over the past century. Globally the size of the population has an impact on changes of birth outnumbering death rates. For instance, in 1965 the crude birth rate is based on the number of births per 1000 individuals in a year, which is approximately 35%, and death rates per 1000 individuals are denoted as the crude death rate, which is 13%. The difference surpassed 20 per 1000 people, and the natural rise is 2% per 100 people. During the period of 2019, the difference between the crude birth rate and the crude death rate exceeded 10 per 1000 population, assisting to population growth, though this difference has been gradually diminishing. Demographic patterns of birth and death rates made the groundwork for the demographic model. The demographic transition model analyzes population shift, which is based on certain stages. When there are high birth and death rates, it denotes a gradual rise in population; when there is a fall of mortality rates due to improvement in healthcare and sanitation with increasing birth rates, rapid growth of population takes place. The shifts in societal norms, enhancement in women’s education, and optimized access to contraception. To stabilize population growth, there should be low birth and death rates. Some models show that when birth rates drop below death rates, the population declines. Over the last century, the world has progressed through stages of the demographic transition.
A decline in fertility rates based on the birth count is induced by two main aspects: one is the number of women in their years of reproduction, and the average number of children the women have is denoted as total fertility rate (TRF). Globally in the 1960s there is a decline in TRF with the help of improved access to education, particularly for women, and financial perspectives on child-rearing expenses.
Globally the current highest total fertility rate is in the regions of Sub-Saharan Africa, because fertility trends show differences across different regions. There was a decrease over the past few years back in Sub-Saharan Africa regions; in 2023 the average number of children born to women was 4.3%, which is greater than that of other regions. Europe, North America, and Central Asia had low levels of birth rates in the 1960s. A decline in fertility rate throughout regions like East Asia and the Pacific was marked with an average of only 1.3 children per woman in the year 2023. Globally it was an average of 1.6 children. Currently the global economies are retrieving themselves at several stages of demographic transition and finding sizeable differences in total fertility rates. In specific regions, the fall of fertility is particularly marked, with the total fertility rates sinking below the replacement level, which is 2.1% of offspring per female.
Conversely, there were five economies in which the average number of children born to a woman was over six. All of these economies, which had fertility rates exceeding six, were located in the Sub-Saharan Africa region. To perceive social necessities, it is important to think about the total population size but also to understand the age distribution within that population globally. The variance in fertility and mortality rates are influential factors that impact the age distribution of a population. The fall of mortality and fertility rates, that is, the rise of life expectancy, tends to aging populations. The demographic shift towards aging populations is occurring in certain areas, such as Europe, North America, and Central Asia. In these regions, 18% of individuals belong to the 65 and older age group, while 17% are part of the 0 to14 age group. Youngest demographic in Sub-Saharan Africa, where the age group of 0-14 is 40% and the 65 and above age group is just 3%. The fertility rate variations and structural age distribution all over the nations underline the spectrum of demographic situations focused on by several economies. The World Population report imparts the potential to acknowledge the impact of these trends and enhance strategic planning, apprehend opportunities, and overcome challenges in the pursuit of sustainability.