Over the past decade the global energy view has shifted with significant changes in the trends of energy markets, and the policy measures and economic decision analysis around the nations have been configured by several key trends, particularly in the pricing movements in products like oil, coal, and natural gas, which have displayed notable variations as a result of conflict dynamics among economies with demand pattern fluctuations and supply chain movements. The international shift towards renewable energy as of 2023 is the strategic planning to fulfill climatic conditions and the fall of adherence to fossil fuels. Based on the Paris Agreement, global commitments across nations should concentrate more on investment and capital inflows in energy sources like hydropower, wind, and solar energy. Commencing in 2023, a global transition focused on renewable energy by fulfilling objectives on climatic effects and declining recourse to fossil fuels. By the Paris Agreement, the countries should focus on implementing investment plans in energy sources such as wind, solar, and hydropower from this commitment for a low-carbon economy, which turns out to use renewable energy by enhancing global insights. But rising energy prices are the deciding factor for economic development and stability, while that will affect the extensive selection of macroeconomic variables.

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Balancing current accounts is one of the most important aspects for a nation’s international economic growth, which functions as the measure of economic robustness and geopolitical or external threat. The major upheaval in current accounts of the country is based on the volatility in energy prices, most probably for natural gas, coal, and oil. Thus, their economic policies towards the link between energy prices and current account balances are complex and include various channels. However, for the countries that depend on energy imports, augmented energy prices lead to increased expenditure on imports, a downfall in terms of trade, and a decline in current account balances. In the global economy, these rises will impact inflationary demands, and changes in exchange rates and monetary policy fluctuations are due to the critical movements in energy hikes, which will reflect on current account balances.

Commodity markets act as a decisive factor in the global economy; it is important to discern the factors that influence market developments with the aim of creating policy plans that support the attainment of economic aims such as sustainable development, reducing poverty, food security, inflation firmness, and lessening climate change. According to the World Bank’s Pink Sheet report, energy prices skyrocketed in June; non-energy commodities showed mixed results; and the energy price index increased by 9.7% in June, propelled by an 11.3% rise in crude oil. The price index excluding energy prices decreased by 1.1%. In June, the agricultural price index experienced a decline of 2.8%. Food prices decreased by 1.4%, beverages saw an 8.2% drop, and raw materials stayed relatively stable. The prices of fertilizers increased by 7.3%. The price rise on metal is 1.7%, and it is 3.2% for aluminum and copper. The increase of precious metals is at 2.6%, whereas the iron ore price falls by 4.8%. Backed by the important gain in platinum at 27.8% and silver at 9.9%.

Fertilizer prices are accelerating due to robust demand and geopolitical tensions; in the second quarter of 2025, price indexes increased by 15 percent in the year commenced. The price increases for the particular fertilizers are like triple superphosphate (TSP) at 43% and diammonium phosphate (DAP) at 23%. Robust demand, trade limitations, and production deficits, particularly regarding urea, have fueled the rise. Prices are expected to see a slight rise throughout the year due to robust demand, with stabilization occurring in 2026. Nonetheless, it is anticipated that prices will stay significantly above their average from 2015 to 2019 due to high input costs, robust consumption, and ongoing export restrictions (China), sanctions (Belarus), and tariffs (Belarus and Russia). In the last few months, some input costs have become less severe. The prices of natural gas, which is essential for producing nitrogen fertilizer, have calmed down. In the US and Europe, these prices have decreased by 26% and 16%, respectively, since the beginning of this year. Liquid sulfur prices, on the other hand, have skyrocketed, having tripled since the conclusion of 2024. To guarantee the availability of lithium iron phosphate batteries for electric vehicles, exports of phosphate have also been restricted. At the same time, Belarus, which is mainly a major potash exporter, still deals with trade limitations set by the European Union. For excess agriculture imports like nitrogen-based fertilizers from Russia and Belarus, the European Union imposed tariffs in recent days. These tariffs, which will be implemented gradually over a three-year period, aim to decrease the EU’s dependence on these suppliers and limit Russia’s export income. Once it reverted to the level of pre-COVID-19 times, the affordability of fertilizer worsened.

The recent price rise in fertilizers has made them less affordable for farmers in such a way that, in early 2022, the DAP availability index has been exceeded, while at the end of 2024, the reverse movement decline in fertilizers like urea and MOP (muriate of potash, or potassium chloride) will occur when demand increases, and then the price of fertilizers will also rise by 7% in 2025, and then it will stabilize its level in 2026. Till now the market has stayed in a state of high demand and low supply, particularly for urea, which was 15% last year but is currently 4%. The data forecast that trade restrictions will affect supply and increase the price of ammonia and natural gas, which could be reflected in a rise of DAP prices. It is expected that MOP prices will increase by roughly 5% in 2025 due to strengthening demand and then stabilize in 2026. A significant downside risk is the rapid growth of Belarusian exports via alternative routes, occurring at a pace that exceeds expectations. The World Bank report concluded that, over the past century, this analysis has been understanding market conditions and developmental plans for all the commodity groups, which involve energy sources, metals, and agricultural products. As a result, the consuming level has risen based on the quantity of commodities, driven by the income growth and global population, which have changed over time, as technology and innovations are creating ways to use resources properly and provide substitution among goods. The effective EMDEs with macroeconomic policies, demand changes, consumer perspectives, and pricing strategies are the factors influencing commodity markets. For the countries, depending on their stage of economic development, macroeconomic policy measures enable growth, and increasingly, other policy tools are mixed towards progressive outcomes.