Economics Perspective

World Bank April 2026 Commodity Markets Outlook warns Middle East conflict will push energy prices up 24% and commodity prices up 16%. Growth forecast for emerging economies cut to 3.6% and up to 45Million more people could face severe food shortages if oil stays above $100/barrel.

The WMO indicates El Niño conditions are actively forming with ocean temperatures near 6°C above average, giving an 80% chance from June to August 2026 and 90% later.

The world food market is in crisis after the total closure of the Strait of Hormuz in late February pushed food commodity prices to April 2026 levels not seen since January 2024. The World Bank reported food prices increased 5% in two months from the conflict’s onset, driven by rising energy, fertilizer, and transport costs. Grains rose 5% in Q1 2026, oils and meals surged 10% with soybean oil up 16% quarterly, and food inflation hit 98% in Iran.

The global economy shows resilience in 2025, with growth forecasts at 2.7%. Key drivers include job creation, tech innovation, infrastructure development, and a focus on sustainable, inclusive growth amidst demographic shifts. In most countries, interest rates started to fall due to the previous tightening of the interest rates that had shut international capital markets' accessibility.

The World Bank Group has focused on five key industries in which there is great potential for creating employment opportunities: the energy and infrastructure sector, agriculture and agribusiness, health care, tourism, and manufacturing. Each of these sectors is interconnected with the other and supports the creation and development of many job opportunities and a broad-based development strategy.

In a world long dominated by the financial tides of the US dollar, a new story is unfolding, driven not by a grand, planned design but by an unexpected external force: the tariff policies of Donald Trump. Trump's renewed presidency saw him sign an executive order in early 2025, first imposing tariffs on imports from China, then escalating to a "universal" tariff on nearly all imports. But the most pointed attacks were reserved for the BRICS bloc and their partners.

Resolving fragility is not only the role of humanitarian action but also important for international security and economic equality. The country is experiencing fragility and conflicts through a multifaceted issue that hinders development and undermines social security. Prolonged hostilities, weak institutions, and state capacity constraints prevent governments from providing necessary services.